Wedbush Morgan Securities predicts a less-than-cheery Christmas for the game industry, blaming their forecast (in part) on consumer indifference to sequels. Analyst Michael Pachter was also quoted in Smartmoney as saying “When [retailers are] scared, they revert to what they know. And they know what sold last year, so they buy sequels.”
Hard to comment on the reliability of this “consumer indifference” estimate. (How’d they gauge sentiment? What was the sample size? How was potential bias accounted for?) It’s also notable that Pachter has been complaining about sequels for some time now. That said, I’m pretty sick of sequels myself, and my gut tells me that consumers will ultimately exhibit fatigue.
What’s interesting is that in the Smartmoney article, Pachter implies that EA’s sequels will do really well (and says “Harry Potter still kicks butt.”) So what’s a little contradiction between friends?